Predictive Value of the SCORE, SCORE2, and Pooled Cohort Risk Equation Systems in Patients with Hypertension

OBJECTIVE
The objective of this study is to assess and compare the accuracy of old and new versions of the European Society of Cardiology Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE and SCORE2) American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Pooled Cohort Risk Assessment Evaluation (PCE) in predicting long-term cardiovascular events in patients with hypertension.


METHODS
This retrospective study consisted of 788 patients diagnosed with hypertension between 2009 and 2018. The absolute risk for 10-year cardiovascular events was calculated with SCORE, SCORE2, SCORE-OP, and PCE systems based on patients’ data obtained on the date of hypertension diagnosis. The study group was followed for the occurrence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events. The differences between observed and predicted risk calculated using SCORE, SCORE2, and PCE systems and their prognostic value were assessed.


RESULTS
The mean age of the 788 patients included in the study, of whom 426 (54.1%) were female, was 54 ± 9 years. During a mean follow-up of 6 years, 173 (22.0%) patients experienced a major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event. In predicting the occurrence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events in hypertension patients over the long-term, PCE had a predictive power comparable and slightly superior to “SCORE2—SCORE-OP (AUC 0.732 vs. 0.724, respectively)” whereas SCORE (AUC 0.689) was inferior to “SCORE2–SCORE-OP.”


CONCLUSION
In this study, the Pooled Cohort Risk Assessment Equation risk-scoring system was superior to the old and new versions of Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation risk system in predicting the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events that developed in patients with hypertension.